Expansion of Nuclear and Space Technology: The Race for Influence
For the better part of 2020 and conceivably well into 2021, world leaders have focused on combating the COVID-19 pandemic, working to limit its spread and racing for a cure. The world received a powerful wakeup call on the dangers of natural threats and, hopefully, will realize the impact of the environment on global health. In the meantime, man-made threats still persist and are evolving. Great power competition has returned, with adversaries such as Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) strengthening their military capabilities and projecting power across the globe. Both nations have a long history of projecting military power in their traditional, more proximate areas of operation, such as around the Black Sea region and throughout the South China Sea. Recently, however, both nations have worked to expand their power projection to more distant locales, including Russia flying nuclear-capable strategic bombers to Venezuela and China opening military bases in Djibouti.
The media and public pay a fair amount of attention to this “hard power” projection, but often overlook Russian and Chinese “soft power” initiatives. Their soft power typically reflects economics, as they attempt to gain influence through infrastructure development support often for the purpose of natural resource extraction (i.e., oil and minerals). However, this soft power more recently includes an expansion of both nuclear and space technologies. Nuclear and space soft power projection clearly has national security implications regarding the proliferation of these technologies, which has both civilian and military applications, to potential hostile actors. In addition, this soft power projection diminishes U.S. influence and its position in the world as countries cooperate more with competitors. The United States must recognize how economics and security interact in countries’ pursuit of these technologies. To remain influential on the world stage the United States must increase its technology outreach to developing nations, while also finding areas of cooperation with Moscow and Beijing to mitigate any potential security risks.
Russia has historically shared nuclear technology as a soft power means to counter U.S. influence. Examples include building nuclear power plants in India and the controversial Bushehr nuclear power station in Iran. The Bushehr nuclear power station has received the most attention due to Iran’s history of supporting terrorism and nuclear proliferation risks, which was the topic of one of my previous articles. Russia has also expanded the exportation of its nuclear technology to include critical Middle Eastern partners such as Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Russia has an agreement to build reactors in Hungary and was constructing a reactor in Bolivia, however that effort was suspended for regulatory issues. Russia’s proliferation of nuclear technology continues to increase because it is a valuable source of income for Moscow and gives it influence in regions that have traditionally been U.S. allies.
The global spread of Russian and Chinese nuclear technology is always of concern due to safety and security implications, but of equal concern is the increase in their global influence. Their actions are often more involved than just building a reactor. A major component of Russian and Chinese nuclear agreements is that they typically finance the construction through a multi-billion dollar line of credit that can include maintenance and fuel (uranium) supply contracts for 50 years or more. China for its part has increased the export of its nuclear technology to include plants in Pakistan and future plants in Argentina, South Africa and Kenya, to name a few. Moreover, Russian and Chinese nuclear industries are state-owned, allowing them to offer attractive financial incentives and streamline permits and agreements. After construction, China and Russia gain incredible influence in the host country as they theoretically could “turn the lights off” if political decisions are not favorable. Russia has demonstrated a willingness to do this as evident by Moscow cutting off natural gas flows to Ukraine in 2009. Conversely, the United States has regulations that limit U.S. companies’ financing and operating agreements for this reason. While the intent behind these regulations is admirable, it is making the United States non-competitive in the growing market for sustainable energy and is reducing its global influence.
Similar to the nuclear industry, the exportation of space technology has dramatically increased. And like nuclear technology, economic factors and security implications play a role. From a national security standpoint, the technology to launch a satellite into space is a steppingstone to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could potentially carry a nuclear warhead. The technology is dual-use in nature, meaning it can be used for peaceful space exploration or offensive military purposes. The recent Defense Intelligence Agency report, Challenges to Security in Space, highlights this threat when it states; “because of the inherent overlap in technology between ICBMs and Space Launched Vehicles (SLV), Iran’s’ development of larger, more capable SLV boosters remains a concern for a future ICBM capability.”
Traditionally, space has been an area where world powers–usually the United States and Russia–sought to use the technology as a means of advancing soft power influence. However, more recently China has begun to use space technology to further both its political and economic interests. Similar to how it exports its nuclear industry, China has established agreements with developing countries to gain access to resources and influence through the sharing of space technology; examples include the Chinese space control center in Argentina, which was built at a time when Argentina was deeply indebted to China. Reportedly, Argentina has no physical oversight of the station. And, much like nuclear power station agreements that tie a country to Russia, the Chinese have a 50-year lease on the land, securing their influence and access for years to come. China is continuing to take a similar approach around the world, particularly in Africa, in what has been coined the “space silk road.” China is launching satellites for countries and offering the use of the Beidou global navigation system, which competes with the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS).
The cornerstone of the Chinese quest to export its space technology is the China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC), which is the sole commercial organization authorized by the Chinese government to provide satellite and launch services. Following the nuclear financing model, CGWIC offers as much as 70 percent financing for satellite construction that can include ground control systems, training and insurance. This in effect makes nations indebted to China and dependent on them for access to satellite data, a resource of ever-increasing economic importance. In addition, the below-cost financing terms and subsidies make the U.S. commercial space industry non-competitive, as reported by a senior U.S. commercial space industry executive’s testimony to Congress. Moscow, while not as prolific as Beijing, continues to seek cooperative space agreements with countries such as Turkey, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Given the dual-use threat of space rocket technology, Russia and China’s continued space sector cooperation with Iran is concerning for this reason alone.
The United States collaborates with other countries’ nuclear and space programs, but this is typically reserved for traditional allies like those in Europe and Asia. To keep pace with Russian and Chinese expansion into less technologically developed regions of the Middle East and Africa, the United States must develop novel financing mechanisms that allow American companies to be competitive. Both space and nuclear technologies offer economic advantages to countries by providing sustainable energy and access to satellite data that can improve the lives of millions of people. The demand for both technologies is growing and it is in the interest of the United States and other world powers that nuclear technology is safe and secure and that space exploration is conducted responsibly. There will always be competition between world powers as they seek to gain economic advantages and increase their global influence. However, there are always mechanisms for cooperation. Even during the height of the cold war, Russia and the United States found a way to cooperate in space, evidenced by the historic 1975 “handshake in space.” Likewise, China has recognized the security dangers inherent to nuclear technology, and with cooperation from the United States, has established the China Center of Excellence on Nuclear Security. It is a political balancing act to both compete and cooperate in the areas of nuclear and space technology. However, the quest for sustainable energy and access to space will only intensify and in order for the United States to remain influential on the world stage, it must invest both political and economic resources to ensure parity with other world powers and meet the growing challenge.
